Cropper GIS Demographic Projections

See the Cropper GIS report Here.

If nothing else, see the yellow highlighted portions of the first six pages.  This is no projection of enrollment but rather a forecast based on extremely random assumptions.  Here are some quotes from it below.  What is certain, though, is they are not planning on any large enrollment growth for Aiken Public Schools.


“Total district enrollment is forecasted to increase by 208 students, or 0.9%, between 2016-17 and 2021-22. Total enrollment is forecasted to grow by 113 students, or 0.5%, from 2021-22 to 2026-27.”  (These tiny projected growths are in contrast to the 45-day count enrollment drop of 287 students from FY2016 to FY2018….WPACARE.)

“Therefore, strictly speaking, this study is a forecast, not a projection; and the amount of modification of the demographic trends varies between different areas of the district as well as within the time frame of the forecast.”

“As the Aiken County area is not currently contemplating any major expansions or contractions, the forecasts also assume that the current economic, political, social, and environmental factors, as well as the transportation and public works infrastructure (with a few notable exceptions) of the Aiken County Public Schools and its attendance areas will remain the same through the year 2026. Below is a list of assumptions and issues that are specific to the Aiken County Schools. These issues have been used to modify the population forecast models to more accurately predict the impact of these factors on each area’s population change. Specifically, the forecasts for the Aiken County School assume that throughout the study period:

a. There will be no short term economic recovery in the next 18 months and the national, state or regional economy does not go into deep recession at any time during the 10 years of the forecasts…”